Quarterly market outlook - 4th Quarter, 2024
Our investment strategists provide the Edward Jones perspective on the latest economic activity and what it may mean for investors.
The Quarterly Market Outlook provides investors with our perspective on recent activity in the capital markets. The Edward Jones Investment Policy Committee offers its viewpoints on the U.S. economy, equities, the bond market, international markets and asset classes, as well as a special topic of interest to investors each quarter.
These aren’t short-term predictions. Rather, this is Edward Jones’ perspective on market and economic topics designed to help you make decisions affecting your long-term financial strategy. As you read through each topic, you'll find specific actions you can discuss with your financial advisor.
Looking back at the third quarter
Stocks and bonds rallied in the third quarter, aided by ongoing monetary easing from the Bank of Canada and the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut of this cycle.
Economic outlook
The Canadian and U.S. labour markets are showing signs of easing, while inflation is moderating. We continue to see a “soft landing” for both economies as the most probable outcome.
Equity outlook
The Canadian and U.S. equity markets continued to see solid gains through Q3, but we would expect the pace of these gains to moderate. While markets may experience bouts of volatility, pullbacks can present opportunities for long-term investors.
Fixed-income outlook
The Bank of Canada (BoC) continued cutting its policy rate in recent months as inflation has moderated. Bond yields remain above their averages over the past decade, despite pulling back from recent peaks, potentially setting the stage for stronger returns ahead. Extending duration with intermediate- and long-term bonds and bond funds can help lock in yields for longer, ahead of likely additional BoC rate cuts.
International outlook
After six straight quarters of underperformance, Canadian and overseas stocks outpaced U.S. stocks in Q3. The U.S. economy will likely continue to lead, but improving prospects elsewhere support the case for an appropriate allocation to the heavily discounted overseas equities.
The Bank of Canada and cash yields
Cash yields typically rise ahead of Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hikes and drop before rate cuts. As the BoC likely continues cutting interest rates, we expect cash yields to fall further.
Strategic asset allocation guidance
Our Strategic Asset Allocation represents our view of balanced diversification for the fixed income and equity portions of a well-diversified portfolio based on our outlook for the economy and markets over the next 30 years.
Quarterly market outlook - Full report from Edward Jones
Download the entire quarterly market outlook report here.