Hello, everyone, and welcome to the first Market Compass of 2025.
It has certainly been an eventful couple of months to start the year, but despite some volatility and uncertainty, markets have performed well with the TSX and the S&P 500 both up over 4% as of mid-February.
Underneath the surface, we have seen a broadening of market leadership beyond U.S. mega-cap technology. We believe the positive market returns we've seen so far in 2025 reflect an economy that continues to remain resilient and is showing signs of momentum. The uncertainty around tariffs remains an overhang and could be a source of volatility, inflation and lower than expected economic growth.
However, barring a recession or central bank rate hikes — neither of which we see ahead — we continue to see market pullbacks as opportunities to diversify, rebalance and add quality investments.
Let’s first look at the Canadian stock market. The TSX is up over 4% on the year, being led by cyclical sectors such as technology, materials and industrials which do well when the Canadian economy is growing.
Similarly, in the U.S., the S&P 500 is up about 4% as of Feb. 13, and sector leadership has broadened. The technology and consumer discretionary sectors have lagged thus far this year after being some of the strongest sectors in 2024, with some U.S. mega-cap tech names underperforming. We believe this theme of diversification and broad leadership will continue in the year ahead.
In the bond market, yields have been trending down on tariff concerns and more aggressive bank of Canada easing. The Bank of Canada has reduced its policy rate by 2% from June 2024 compared to the Federal Reserve's 1% decrease. As a result, U.S. 10-year treasury rate is yielding over 1.30% above the Canada 10-year rate.
U.S. treasury yields have come down from their highs but remain elevated versus recent history as inflation remains sticky and above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
Given the uncertainty around inflation and tariffs, Canadians yields have moved lower due to the expectation of more bank of Canada rate cuts to support the economy. In the U.S., yields have moved higher, because the tariffs are seen as inflationary and the markets have priced in fewer Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Higher yields generally mean lower bond prices, but for savers, long-term investors and those nearing retirement, elevated bond yields can be a good source of income. We continue to see opportunities in the U.S. investment-grade market to extend duration and invest in high-quality bonds and to take advantage of higher U.S. bond yields.
After two years of double-digit returns in Canada and the U.S. stock markets, what is driving the continued positive returns this year? In our view, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive, which underpins this bull market.
Corporate earnings continue to deliver: We see them growing by double digits this year as well, driven by contributions from both growth and value sectors, which should support stock market returns.
The labour market has been an ongoing source of strength for the U.S. economy. Keep in mind that when households feel confident in their jobs and the job market broadly, they are more inclined to consume. The U.S. unemployment rate remains at 4%, well below the long-term average of 5.7%, and wage growth, while elevated at about 4%, continues to outpace the rate of inflation. This means employees are bringing home positive real wages, also good for households and consumers.
I'll now pass things to Julie Petrera.
Thank you, Mona.
Perhaps the biggest source of uncertainty for markets, and the most significant risk to economic growth is the tariff and trade policy. An escalation in tariffs on one or more economies would not only weigh on consumer and market sentiment, but could also increase prices and put downward pressure on economic growth.
The Bank of Canada expects a 2.5% reduction in GDP if the U.S. implements a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. This would likely lead to a mild recession in Canada.
However, we do see some mitigating factors when it comes to tariffs and trade. We’ll highlight three today:
- First. The possibility of U.S. tariffs may be more targeted. Rather than across-the-board tariffs of 25% on all imported goods, The U.S. may take a more targeted approach as seen by the 10% tariff proposed on energy.
- Next - The decline in the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar has seen a decline of 5% since October, dropping to a low of sixty eight and seven tenths of a cent due to tariff threats. If the 25% tariffs are imposed broadly, we could see the Canadian dollar drop further, which would help to offset some of the potential impact.
- And finally, the potential of fiscal stimulus. The current Canadian government has previously alluded to the fact that stimulus could be provided to impacted sectors of the economy as well as consumers to help withstand the impacts of tariffs.
So, while the Bank of Canada forecast of a 2.5% reduction in GDP may be in the realm of possibilities, it's also plausible that we don’t see the full impact due to these mitigating factors.
Overall, after two years of solid gains in stock markets, and low volatility during this period, we expect to see moderation in returns and increased market volatility ahead. However, we continue to see positive economic and earnings growth.
And while tariffs and trade remain uncertain, we don’t see them pushing the economy into a prolonged recession. Thus, we believe investors can use market pullbacks as opportunities to diversify, rebalance and add quality investments at better prices across stock and bond markets.
In our view, diversification will be a key theme in the year ahead. By spreading your portfolio across a variety of asset classes, you can help avoid too much exposure to those that may be underperforming while potentially taking advantage of others that might be outperforming.
If you are concerned about the impact of tariffs to your personal household expenses, or if you work in an industry that you worry may be impacted - connect with your Edward Jones Advisor to ensure you’ve accounted for price increases in your budget and that your emergency fund reflects any risk of a job disruption.
Additionally, if the thought of market volatility keeps you up at night, speak to your advisor about reviewing your risk tolerance to ensure your investment strategy appropriately reflects your comfort with risk. An appropriately specified risk tolerance is one that is designed to balance your ability and willingness to take on risk while helping you earn a rate of return that high enough to meet all of your financial goals.
And with that, I thank you, and we’ll see you here next time on the Market Compass.