- Stocks close lower – The TSX and major U.S. equity indexes closed lower on Friday, but the TSX held onto gains for the week. Large-cap stocks trailed small- and mid-cap stocks for the day*. Sector performance was mixed, with real estate and energy leading to the upside, and with communication services and consumer discretionary among those that were lower *. Canada GDP rose 0.3% in April, as expected, reaccelerating from stalled growth in March**. In global markets, Asia was up on stronger-than-expected Japan industrial-production growth of 2.8%. Europe was broadly lower as investors evaluated new inflation data. The U.S. dollar was down modestly versus major currencies. In the commodity space, WTI oil and gold traded lower.
- Key inflation measures edge lower: The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.6% year-over-year through May, as expected, and is down from 2.8% the prior month**. Headline PCE was also in line with estimates at 2.6% over the past 12 months, compared with 2.7% the prior month**. Consumption expenditures rose 0.2%, up modestly from April's reading of 0.1%**, but still reflecting that consumers are pulling back on spending. While core PCE remains above the Fed's target of 2%, we expect inflation to continue to moderate in the back half of the year, driven in part by lower shelter inflation and slower wage growth. Government measures of shelter inflation, including CPI and PCE, have been lagging market-based measures, such as Zillow's Observed Rent Index***, which show housing costs rising at a slower rate. Labour markets are also gradually cooling, reflected in fewer job openings and slowly rising unemployment.
- Bond yields rise - Bond yields were up, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield near 3.5% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at about 4.39%. Bond markets continue to price in expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year following the PCE report, which reflected that inflation is slowing in line with estimates. Our expectations are that continued signs inflation is moderating should keep the Bank of Canada on track to continue cutting toward the end of this year and the Fed to follow with one or two rate cuts later this year, which would be favourable for the economy and markets broadly.
Brian Therien, CFA
Investment Strategy
*FactSet ** Statistics Canada *** U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis **** Zillow
- Stocks tick higher ahead of tomorrow's U.S. inflation report: Equity markets were higher on Thursday, with the TSX logging a 0.7% gain and the S&P 500 rising by 0.1%.* The consumer discretionary and real estate sectors of the S&P 500 were today's top performers, while the defensive consumer staples sector lagged.* On the economic front, U.S. initial jobless claims came in slightly lower than consensus expectations, while U.S. headline durable goods orders rose by 0.1% in May, above expectations for no change.* Overseas, Asian markets were mostly lower overnight in response to sluggish industrial profit growth in China, while European markets finished lower following a lower-than-expected eurozone economic-sentiment reading.* Bond yields ticked down today, with the 10-year GoC yield finishing around 3.47%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined to around 4.29%.* In the commodity space, oil prices closed higher, rising to just below $82 per barrel, while gold prices rose by 1%.* Looking ahead, market focus will shift to U.S. inflation data, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation out tomorrow.
- Markets eye U.S. inflation data and its implications on monetary policy: Market focus will shift to inflation with the release of U.S. PCE inflation for May out tomorrow morning. Expectations are for headline PCE to be flat on a month-over-month basis and rise by 2.6% year-over-year.* Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is expected to rise by a modest 0.1% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. Earlier this month, U.S. consumer price index and producer price index inflation came in lower than expectations, providing markets with confidence that the trend in inflation remains lower after three consecutive months of higher-than-expected inflation readings to begin the year. In response, markets are now pricing in roughly two Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in 2024 compared with only one at the end of April.** In our view, two rate cuts from the Fed in 2024 are a reasonable expectation but far from a certainty. In order to gain the confidence necessary to begin lowering rates, we expect the Fed will need to see several more consecutive months of lower inflation data. As for the Bank of Canada, Tuesday's higher-than-expected domestic inflation data will likely lead to a pause from the BoC at the July meeting. However, additional readings that show the trend in inflation remains lower will likely be the catalyst for additional BoC rate cuts this year. Perhaps more important to markets than the exact timing of rate cuts is the direction of policy rates, which we expect will be lower over the coming years. In our view, a multiyear rate-cutting cycle from the Fed and BoC in the absence of a recession should be supportive to stock and bond markets.
- U.S. jobless claims hold steady: U.S. initial jobless claims for last week were 233,000, below expectations for 235,000 and below the prior reading of 239,000.* With today's reading, the four-week moving average rose to 236,000, which, while low by historical standards, is the highest reading since September 2023.* The modest uptick in jobless claims is consistent with our view that labour-market conditions will loosen in the months ahead. We would, however, reiterate that while we expect the labour market to cool, we don't expect a meaningful uptick in firing or unemployment. Rather, we'd expect the strong pace of job creation in recent months to potentially slow as the imbalance between supply and demand for labour normalizes. A healthy albeit easing labour market should provide support to consumer spending and help extend the U.S. economic expansion.
Brock Weimer, CFA
Associate Analyst
*FactSet **Bloomberg
- Stocks close mostly higher: Equity markets finished mostly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.2% while the TSX posted a modest 0.1% decline.* Sector leadership was narrow, with the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 gaining roughly 2%, driven by strong gains in Tesla and Amazon, while most other sectors finished flat to lower.* Overseas, Asian markets closed higher overnight, while European markets closed lower following a consumer-confidence reading from Germany that was lower than consensus expectations.* On the corporate front, shares of FedEx closed higher by over 15% in response to strong earnings results after the market close yesterday, with the company exceeding earnings estimates for the quarter.* Bond yields finished higher, with the 10-year GoC yield rising to 3.48% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to around 4.3%.
- U.S. large-cap stocks and bonds are tracking for another positive month; Canadian stocks have lagged: With only two trading days left in June, U.S. large-cap stocks and investment-grade bonds are following up a strong performance in May with more gains this month. The S&P 500 is higher by roughly 3.7% this month, aided by ongoing strength in mega-cap technology stocks.** The information technology and communication services sectors of the S&P 500 have both risen by over 5.5% this month and are the only two sectors outperforming the broader S&P 500 month-to-date.** Domestic stocks have lagged in June, with the TSX lower by roughly 1.9%. Lackluster performance from the energy and materials sectors (which comprise roughly 30% of the TSX) have been a primary reason for the underperformance in June.* On the fixed-income side, the Bloomberg Canada Aggregate Index is higher for the month by roughly 2%.* Bond returns have been boosted by a pullback in yields stemming from a lower-than-expected U.S. inflation reading earlier this month. The 10-year GoC yield has pulled back from roughly 3.6% at the end of May to around the 3.48% mark today.*
- U.S. housing data in focus: U.S. housing market data is back in focus today with the release of new home sales for May. U.S. new home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 619,000 in May, modestly below expectations for 648,000.* The median sales price of new homes in May was $417,400, which was also below the April reading of $433,500. Despite higher borrowing costs and selling prices near all-time highs, U.S. new home sales have fared reasonably well, with the May reading of 619,000 only moderately below the 10-year average of about 640,000.* However, existing home sales, which were released last Friday, have shown meaningful weakness in the face of higher borrowing costs. Last week's data showed that existing home sales were at a 4.1 million annualized rate in May, well below the 10-year average of roughly 5.3 million and lower by 0.7% from the prior month, marking the third consecutive month-over-month decline.* We'd equate the divergence between new and existing home sales to existing homeowners showing reluctance to put their homes on the market and forfeit lower mortgage rates that were locked in at lower rates. This reaction from homeowners is also evidenced in the inventory of existing homes for sale, which is at the low end of its 10-year range, compared with new homes for sale, which have risen steadily over the past year. Tight housing inventory in the U.S. has likely been a driving factor behind the resilience in home prices despite higher borrowing costs and lower home affordability. To the degree that lower interest rates bring additional supply of housing to the market in the form of existing homes for sale, potential rate cuts from the Fed could potentially slow the pace of rising U.S. home prices.
Brock Weimer, CFA
Associate Analyst
*FactSet **FactSet, total return in local currency through 6/25/2024
- Stock indexes finished mixed as technology remains the guide – After the major averages finished mixed on Monday, stocks produced a similar encore on Tuesday, but this time with tech gains helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to a positive close, while the TSX was modestly lower and the Dow gave back 300 points, thanks to declines in Home Depot and Walmart shares. Cyclical and defensive areas outperformed on Monday, but today's leadership came from a rebound in technology and communication services stocks, a rather common theme in 2024. NVIDIA, which briefly became the largest market-cap company in the world last week, had fallen more than 15% from that peak before posting a solid gain Tuesday. Nevertheless, enthusiasm around AI has been a powerful driver of market gains over the last several months, with the Nasdaq up 18% and the S&P 500 rising more than 14% year-to-date, while the TSX has logged a more tepid 4% increase. Looking across markets, commodities were weaker, with gold declining and oil prices down more than 1% to close just above $80 per barrel. Bonds were lower on the day, with the 10-year Government of Canada bond yield moving up toward 3.4%, spurred by a hotter-than-expected inflation report released Tuesday morning. *
- Sector check shows shifting leadership – The case for sector diversification remains strong, as leaders and laggards have rotated amid the progressing outlook for economic growth and central-bank policy moves. Year-to-date, the best performers are technology (+26%), communication services (+25%), utilities, financials and energy (each up roughly 11%). This reflects the significant momentum behind the AI trend while also demonstrating a broadening of leadership into both cyclical and defensive sectors, consistent with our view coming into the year that gains would widen beyond just mega-cap tech (the "Magnificent 7"). Performance over the last month reflects a shift in the macroeconomic landscape, as data have shown some emerging softness, notably in consumer activity. Over the last month, a pullback in tech has narrowed its lead, with real estate, consumer discretionary, communication services and health care also making up the best sector performers. Cyclicals, like financials and industrials, have lagged a bit in June as markets adjust to the prospects of slower economic growth. Nevertheless, equity markets continue to perform well of late, as the signs of moderating consumer demand also bring the prospects of slowing inflation and support for an upcoming Fed rate cut, and potentially further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. **
- May inflation comes in hotter than anticipated – Consumer prices rose 0.3% in May versus April, a larger-than-expected increase in the seasonally adjusted measure that pushed the annual rate of inflation up to 2.9%, compared with a consensus expectation of 2.5% and the prior month's reading of 2.7%. Upward pressure came from areas like travel services, food and rent. The first is likely to subside as seasonal factors progress, but the last is likely to prove to be a challenge, as overall shelter prices have been a persistent factor for overall inflation, and as mortgage interest costs will remain a pain point. The upshot is that this CPI reading complicates the Bank of Canada's job in terms of orchestrating further rate cuts in the coming months. We don't think this dramatically changes the broader path, as we anticipate the BoC will seek to lower its policy rate over the coming year. However, we do think this makes the case for the BoC to pause in July, as cutting rates again without confirmation that this is more of a one-off CPI hiccup would appear out of sync with the central bank's inflation mandate. Additional inflation readings that show CPI remains in a downtrend would likely be the catalyst for additional rate cuts from the BoC this year.
Craig Fehr, CFA
Investment Strategy
*FactSet ** FactSet, S&P 500 GICs level 1 sector total returns.